Beta Fund Commentary

Will Change in the Guard Bring New Policies?

Thebetafund.com — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 12:55:24 GMT

Tuesday, June 18, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Solid economic news in the form of a stronger than expected Empire State Manufacturing Index as well as better than forecast housing data caused stocks to rise sharply in early trading on Monday. By early afternoon stocks retreated a bit, although they remained higher, after a report by the Financial Times surfaced that the Fed would announce that it is close to a “tapering” of asset purchases during this Wednesday’s press-conference. In spite of these ongoing speculations and related concerns, all sectors of the S&P traded higher and Treasury Yields rose slightly. Commodities were mostly higher, albeit in a muted fashion.

Looking Ahead:

This morning Bloomberg published an article that quoted President Obama that “Mr. Bernanke has stayed at the Fed longer than he wanted to,” raising some concerns that a change in the guard may bring new policies. This, along with yesterday’s FT article, are making tomorrow’s FOMC meeting announcement event more critical (as we stated yesterday, most likely the most important meeting of the year). There are definitively two varying forces at play at this time. Broadly speaking, economic news continues to be mixed and points to muted growth for the remainder of the year. Simultaneously, the sharp rise in asset prices, principally equities and real estate, are increasing comfort levels that the economic recovery is sustainable and on solid footing. While unemployment continues to be elevated, consumer confidence does appear to be improving. Based on this as well as inflation data we are tracking, we anticipate a slight change in tone and wording from the Fed tomorrow, all the while maintaining their current posture that asset purchase levels will be reduced in an orderly manner on the condition that the employment outlook and inflation targets remain stable and are within reach. Given the global state of affairs and ongoing weakness in China as well as mixed data from Europe, we do not believe we are near that point quite yet.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear out latest analysis, interviews with some of todays most respected business leaders as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Abrupt Change In Monetary Policy Is Highly Unlikely

Thebetafund.com — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 13:28:40 GMT

Monday, June 17, 2013

Market Recap:
The S&P 500 lost about 1% in a volatile trading week, as investors concern that the US Federal Reserve Bank may tapper its asset purchases rose. All sectors of the S&P were lower for the week. However, of the 500 index constituents, 178 maintain positive technical momentum, while 50 have negative momentum. Bond funds suffered their worst weekly outflows since 1982 according to data provided by Global Economics.

Looking Ahead:
We continue to believe that the risk of an abrupt change in monetary policy is highly unlikely and that investor concerns are exaggerated. As such, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC announcement could drive a rally if Dr. Bernanke indicates that current policy will stay in place for some time.

Next Week’s Action:

Monday: The Empire State Manufacturing Index is released at 8:30 AM, and Housing Market data is released at 10:00 AM.
Tuesday: Housing Starts and CPI data are released at 8:30 AM
Wednesday: Perhaps the most critical FOMC Meeting minutes, forecast and conference call by the Chairman of the year occurs at 2:00 PM. Federal Express reports earnings.
Thursday: Jobless Claims are released at 8:30, PMI data at 8:58 AM, Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Index are released at 10:00 AM
Friday: TGIF, but first investors will have to deal with added volatility associated with quadruple witching day – where equity options, options on futures, index options and stock futures all expire.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM to hear our latest analysis, insightful interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders and our market outlook commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Stock Markets Becoming More Volatile

Thebetafund.com — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 14:00:50 GMT

Friday, June 14, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks gapped open higher and stayed higher on Thursday after retail sales data showed a greater rise than anticipated. Jobless claims in the US also fell, while German industrial data was slightly better than expected. All sectors of the S&P were higher, as were European markets. The Nikkei fell more than 6% to officially enter bear market territory.

Looking Ahead:

With Bond yields spiking, stock markets becoming more volatile, and economy data still inconsistent, investors are wondering if the market bull-run is over. In our view, investors are wise to look to the bond market in perplexing times, as generally Bond markets are a better indicator of what’s to come than equity markets. In the past month, mortgage rates have risen ½% and the 10 Year Treasury is up nearly as much as well - Ominous signs if you just focus on the headline news. But the story is much deeper; investors should pay close attention to LIBOR rates. Why LIBOR? Most consumer loans, including car loans, many credit cards, and adjustable rate mortgages are based on LIBOR rates. As such, these matter much more to the economy than the 10 or 30 Year Treasury rates. As the chart below shows, LIBOR rates have been steady of the past month and are down significantly from a year ago.

LIBOR, other interest rate indexes

	This week	Month ago	Year ago
Bond Buyer's 20 bond index	3.93	3.67	3.92
FNMA 30 yr Mtg Com del 60 days	3.72	3.21	3.18
1 Month LIBOR Rate	0.19	0.20	0.24
3 Month LIBOR Rate	0.27	0.27	0.47
6 Month LIBOR Rate	0.41	0.42	0.74
Call Money	2.00	2.00	2.00
1 Year LIBOR Rate	0.69	0.70	1.07

Source: BankRate.com; rates as of 6/5/12

We’re not trying to dismiss the idea that the 30 year-long bond market bull-run is over, to the contrary, we’re surprised bonds have done so well for so long. None-the-less, the current level of hyperbole regarding the “mini” correction we are seeing in US Treasury markets is a bit perplexing. There are still plenty of trouble spots around the world and reasons to be nervous about the long-term outcome of all the currency and interest manipulation that is occurring as a result of Central Bank actions. What we don’t see is a reason to panic or any indication that a sizeable shift in monetary policy is likely anytime soon.

While Japan may reverse course on some of its aggressive measures, Europe is likely going to ease more while the US in unlikely to change track soon. A reversal of shift in policy by Japan is likely to shake markets, but in our view this will prove very constructive for US equities. Why? Think of it as drinking a gallon of water. If we told you to drink a gallon of water in an hour, you could do it without too much difficulty. If we asked you to do this in 10 minutes, you would likely drown. Japan is drowning, not because the policy is wrong, but rather because the system is unable to digest the swiftness and brute force of the policy. We are (somewhat) believers in rational market theory and think that market participants will come around to this view in the coming months. As such, we don’t see a reason to panic, believe rates will retreat again, and that US equities will trade 4% to 5% above current levels by Thanksgiving.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM to hear our latest analysis, insightful interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders and our market outlook commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Investors Are Wise to be Cautious

Thebetafund.com — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 13:08:19 GMT

Thursday, June 13, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Central Bank action remained front and center as investors continued to worry that the Federal Reserve and perhaps other banks would cease or at the very least slow their aggressive asset purchases. The theory gained some validity as Fed participation in recent bond auctions shrank materially – a year ago, the Fed’s purchases frequently amounted to over 50% of the overall auction volume, more recently this figure has dropped to below 20%. In addition to the concerns over an eventual paring of central bank support, stocks, and commodities were also pressured by weakening economic data from Asia as well as the US. All S&P sectors were negative.

Looking Ahead:

Investors are waking up to news that the Japanese Nikkei is now 20% below its recent high, officially putting the index in bear-market territory. Given the current tepid outlook and increased volatility, investors are wise to be cautious. However, we do not believe there is an overwhelming reason for pessimism or that there will be a significant and prolonged market correction (note: a pull-back in excess of 8% is possible, but would likely prove very short-lived). Financial markets are reassessing the global economic outlook and central bank support assets are being re-priced. In our view, market participants are over-estimating the strength and sustainability of the global recovery. Recent statements by Fed Chairman Bernanke focused on tapering off asset purchases only if the US recovery “remains on solid footing” – recent data points to a mixed picture. As such, we do not anticipate a change in policy in the near term. As the markets shake out their views and re-price some assets, we are finding new investment opportunities in small-cap stocks as well as large-cap multinationals which are growing revenues at a very strong pace and have fortress like balance sheets. Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on Sunday at 2:00 PM on WORD 710 AM to hear our latest analysis, insightful interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders and our market outlook commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Monitoring Capital Asset Flows

Thebetafund.com — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 13:16:10 GMT

Wednesday, June 12, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks sold off sharply in a volatile session on Tuesday as worries over Central Bank action continued to dominate investor sentiment. The sell-off began in pre-market trading after the Bank of Japan announced that it would not initiate any additional or new policy actions at this time. By mid-day investors seemed to have found their footing as the DJIA erased a 150 point loss only to fall and close nearly 130 points lower. Commodities were also under pressure for most of the day as reports for Chinese import demand disappointed investors as well.

Looking Ahead:

We’ve been monitoring capital asset flows and have noticed a significant shift in investor preference. Over the past two weeks, high-yield bond funds have suffered significant outflows, as have emerging market equities. U.S. and European investors appear to remain comfortable with large-cap US multi-national stocks as well as cyclical stocks. We anticipate ongoing market volatility with a short-term downward bias, but do not expect a significant or deep market correction. According to the latest Barclays Capital Investment Survey, the majority of investment professionals are still optimistic and bullish on US equities, while being more bearish on fixed income markets.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR (710 AM) to listen to our latest market analysis and commentary.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Little Catalyst for Equities to Move Significantly Higher

Thebetafund.com — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 13:31:04 GMT

Tuesday, June 11, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:
The week started in an uneventful manner yesterday, with stock, bond and commodity prices showing little movement or directionality. S&P sectors were mixed with the defensive telecom sector slightly outperforming. U.S. bond yield did climb to a yearly high on ongoing concerns that the Federal Reserve would taper asset purchases and after Standard & Poors raised the outlook of the United States credit rating. Weaker than expected Chinese import data put a little pressure on metals, but generally there was little movement.

Looking Ahead:

As we look at the current environment we continue to see range-bound trading as there is little catalyst for equities to move significantly higher in the short-term and similarly there is no overwhelming reason to sell. Even though some are speculating that the Fed’s asset purchases could slow as early as this summer (some think as early as next week’s regularly scheduled announcement), it is unlikely that the tapering will be forceful enough to disrupt the current bull-market run. In spite of this optimistic view, we maintain our overall defensive stance as positive market breadth continues to be broad. Thursday’s Import / Export Prices and Business Inventory data will provide investors and asset managers further insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could prove to be market moving. Tune into WOR 710 AM this Sunday at 2:00PM to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg and hear our latest economic analysis and market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details and to listen to this past Sunday’s show.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Benign Inflation Data

Thebetafund.com — Fri, 31 May 2013 13:15:22 GMT

Friday, May 31, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Once more it was all about the Fed and monetary policy. Investors took in the revised Q1 GDP data and higher than forecast jobless claims and determined that the recent worries over the end or tapering off of QE and asset purchases were overdone. Additionally Fed Governors Bullard and Rosengren both indicated that they believed policy should remain constant and that there should be no rush to diminish support. As a result, most sectors of the S&P were higher with technology and financial shares leading the way.

Looking Ahead:

Overnight, data showing the Europe’s unemployment rate reach new highs was released, while inflation remained in check for the continent. The benign inflation data helped Japanese stocks gain ¼%, while other Asian markets remained range bound waiting for economic data from the U.S. The data this morning showed benign inflation figures and weaker than expected personal income growth, providing further support to our view that a change in Fed policy is unlikely to occur this year. As the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against most commodity and carry currencies (Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, New Zeeland Dollar, etc..) international investors are increasing their U.S. equity exposure, further supporting our markets. In short, as we look at all the data (as opposed to simply cherry-picking) we believe the global economy continues to improve at a slow and uneven pace and therefore do not buy into the argument that Central Banks will change policy abruptly of soon.

Tune into WOR (710 AM) this Sunday at 2:00 PM to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on its new home. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Apply Some Caution

Thebetafund.com — Thu, 30 May 2013 12:57:03 GMT

Thursday, May 30, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks started, stayed, and ended lower on Wednesday as worries over QE and the end of QE beleaguered investors worldwide. Most sectors of the S&P were lower for the day, with telecom and utility shares declining most as they are seen as being most impacted by higher interest rates and inflation. Commodities were mixed to slightly higher, while Treasuries were mostly higher – with the exception of the 30 Year Treasury which sold off a bit.

Looking Ahead:

Investors need to apply some caution here as the recent “buy on a dip” strategy seems to be losing its appeal. Although summer months have traditionally been challenging for investors of late, we do not expect a significant correction to occur (10% plus). In our view, the support from Central Banks as well as strong corporate earnings indicate a fair valuation of the market at these levels. Meaning that the more likely trading scenario is that stocks will remain range-bound with a slight downward bias. Investors are likely to keep a close eye on today’s (second) look at first quarter GDP figures as well as jobless claims figures. Globally, we remind investors that Central Banks are increasing their supportive monetary policy stance, making the worries and chatter about an abrupt end of the policy counterintuitive.

Tune into WOR (710 AM) this Sunday June 2^nd at 2:00 PM to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg. Visit website www.ggfs.com for details.

Short Week...Expect Plenty of Action

Thebetafund.com — Tue, 28 May 2013 12:52:54 GMT

Tuesday, May 28, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:
After opening sharply lower, stocks made a comeback over the course of light trading on Friday. Investors showed increased anxiety over the possibility of ending QE sooner rather than later, as well as being influenced by the sharp volatility in Japanese markets. Most sectors of the S&P 500 were lower for the day, with the exception of the consumer staple sector, where food and beverage stocks performed particularly well.

Although U.S. markets were closed on Monday in celebration of Memorial Day, international markets were open. The Japanese Nikkei continued to trade in a volatile manner, while the rest of Asia decided to take its lead from Europe where trading was calm and trended to the upside. Commodities were mostly down on Friday and range-bound on Monday.

Looking Ahead:

It might be a shorted week of trading, but expect plenty of action. On Tuesday, investors will receive news on Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing Data, and the Case Shiller Home Price Index. Thursday will bring GDP figures and Jobless Claims as well as more housing data. The week also brings additional Consumer Confidence Data as well as Personal Income and Spending Figures. Lastly, as earnings week wraps up this week, expect early revisions and changes to full year outlooks to start rolling in.

As you know, Money Matters with Gary Goldberg is moving to its new home on WOR 710 AM beginning this Sunday June 2^nd at 2:00 PM. Make sure to tune in! Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

U.S. Economic Data Remains Resilient

Thebetafund.com — Fri, 24 May 2013 13:55:17 GMT

Friday, May 24, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Volatility in global markets was front and center over the past couple of days. After yesterday’s 7%+ drop, the Japanese Nikkei gained 4%, then dropped to negative 3% before closing slightly higher this morning. As counter intuitive as it may sound, the increased volatility in markets is a reflection of the positive impact that loose monetary policy and asset purchases are having. As a result of all of the money being utilized by Central Banks around the world, the global economy is recuperating – as intended. This however is now raising concerns that the Fed and other Central Banks will taper off asset purchases and begin a return to more normal monetary policy measures. In our view, this is a premature worry and would indeed be a positive step for equity markets. Bond investors, however, are justified in their concerns as rising interest rates will make quick work of the gains made in fixed income instruments so far.

Looking Ahead:

U.S. economic data remains resilient and even impressive. This morning’s Durable Goods Orders report showed a rise of 3.3% in the month of April, significantly above the expected 1.5% gain. Moreover, Initial Jobless Claims and the employment outlook continue to improve as well. And while the latest PMI reading illustrated a weaker than expected headline number, the underlying data, in particular relating to new orders, was more robust than consensus expectations. Lastly, the U.S. housing market is showing continued and sustainable signs of improvements, with both home prices and sales volume rising now for 10 months in a row. As we enter the summer months, which have traditionally been challenging for investors, we expect some added volatility all the while anticipating continue market appreciation. We continue to see significant opportunities in the small-cap value space as well as in high-quality dividend paying stocks.

Everyone here at GGFS wishes you a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Weekend – remember our troops and in particular those who gave it all. Join us on WOR Radio beginning Sunday June 2nd at 2:00 PM when Money Matters with Gary Goldberg starts its new format on one of New York’s most powerful and respected talk radio stations. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

The Collar Strategy

Thebetafund.com — Thu, 23 May 2013 12:53:02 GMT

Thursday, May 23, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks vacillated at the open as market participants waited for the FOMC minutes and Dr. Bernanke’s speech. As the 2 o’clock hour came closer optimism reigned on Wall Street driving the DJIA to a triple digit gain. By the time the closing bell rand, stocks reversed their gains and posted ½% losses across the board. The sell-off appears to have been driven by Dr. Bernanke’s comments that although the Fed would keep its current asset purchase plan in place and at its current pace, the board of governors would spend the next few meetings discussing the timing and velocity of a reduction in the pace of purchases. Technology shares underperformed, and the 10 year Treasury Yield soared above 2%.

Looking Ahead:

Overnight, European and Asian bourses reacted negatively to the Fed Chairman’s comments, causing a broad sell-off around the world. The Japanese Nikkei lost over 7% overnight, while Japanese interest rates rose above 1% for the first time in years. In spite of the overnight sell-off, we continue to be constructive on the markets and anticipate new highs being made before year end. Specifically, we continue to see significant value in lower-volatility small cap stocks, which are represented in our Small-Cap Buster Program, as well as select high-quality, high-dividend paying stocks, represented in our Dividend Buster Program. More aggressive and trade oriented investors may consider an option collar strategy our President wrote about earlier this week (Link here: http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/options/articles/Collar-Profits-With-S2526P-500-255EGSPC/5/22/2013/id/49957).

A New Beginning:
Today marks an important day in the (future) history of Gary Goldberg Financial Services. For more than 27 years, since 1984, Gary Goldberg, our Founder and CEO has been the host of Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on various Hudson Valley regional radio stations. Today will be the last day of our daily program as we gear up for an awesome opportunity to join WOR 710 AM, one of the most powerful and most listened to AM radio stations in the New York Tri-State area. Beginning Sunday June 2^nd, Money Matters with Gary Goldberg will have a new home, a new (and hopefully current) audience with a full 1 hour program which will air from 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM each Sunday. We hope you join us for our inaugural program, when we will be speaking to Muriel Siebert, the first women to be a member of the New York Stock Exchange, discussing the current graduation season and sharing tips and ideas on making college tuition more affordable as well as having Bill “The Tax Man” Carbonari join us to discuss strategies on how to reduce the amount of taxes you might pay on your investments. Visit our www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFN to listen live.

“The Song Remains the Same”

Thebetafund.com — Wed, 22 May 2013 13:24:27 GMT

Market Recap:
“The Song Remains the Same”…. Although stocks started on the downside, they steadily climbed higher as investors brushed aside concerns and focused on tomorrows FOMC minutes release and speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke. S&P sectors were mixed, with healthcare shares gaining the most while telecom stocks underperformed. Commodities were mostly lower, after a report showed that Chinese imports of raw materials dropped slightly more than anticipated.

Looking Ahead:
Wednesday will be about Dr. Ben, who addresses the media and thereby global markets around 2:00 pm. Given recent statement by St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Dallas Fed President Fisher, investors should not expect any significant policy shift announcements. Rather, expect markets to focus on any inflation related talking points as well as any direct comments by Dr. Bernanke regarding US employment. Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg at 10:05 AM to hear our latest analysis and commentary.

Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live. Listen for us on WOR Radio (710 AM) beginning Sunday June 2^nd, when the program moves to a new format.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

The Forefront of Earnings Reports

Thebetafund.com — Tue, 21 May 2013 12:47:16 GMT

Tuesday, May 21, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks started the week with a slight downward bias as talk of ending or reducing QE weighed on investors. Sectors of the S&P were mixed with the traditionally defensive consumer staple sector underperforming, while financial and energy shares gained. Speculation that QE might come to an end as early as the end of this year drove precious metal prices lower, gold and silver declined for the 8^th consecutive trading session.

Looking Ahead:

Consumer Goods and Retail Companies are at the forefront of earnings reports today and for the rest of the week. Expect some added volatility with a slight downward bias as a result. As earnings season comes to an end, analysts and strategists are beginning to review their second quarter outlook, generally lowering expectations. Historically this has meant that companies who report very early or very late in the cycle are less likely to be part of any sell-off as these strategists either already have or aren’t close to revising those companies estimates. Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every weekday at 10:05 AM to hear our latest analysis and market commentary.

Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live. Listen for us on WOR Radio (710 AM) beginning Sunday June 2^nd, when the program moves to a new format.

Another Week of Gains for Stocks

Thebetafund.com — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:59:07 GMT

Monday, May 20, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Another week of gains for stocks, as positive earnings and mixed economic data drove major averages to all-time highs. Nearly 90% of S&P constituents have reported Q 1 earnings. Of these, 67% have beaten earnings estimates while 47% have surpassed revenue expectation. Year-over-year average revenue growth has been 4.5% and average earnings growth has been 8.5%; while the S&P 500 has risen over 27% in the past 12 months.

Looking Ahead:

Increasing monetary policy intervention and capital market manipulation are likely to drive equity prices and volatility higher. Expect a busy end of the week with significant economic data and reports, starting Wednesday with the FOMC minutes.

Monday:
Campbell Soup {CPB} kicks off a consumer heavy earnings report week

Tuesday:
AutoZone (S: AZO), Home Depot (s: HD) and TJX Corp (s: TJX) report

Wednesday:
Lot’s of earnings reports, but the FOMC Minutes will dominate news

Thursday:
Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Housing Prices, and PMI data are all Released

Friday:
Durable Goods orders report is released before the open.

Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM and beginning June 2^nd at 2:00 PM every Sunday afternoon on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest commentary and analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

U.S. Equity Futures Pointing to a Slightly Higher Open

Thebetafund.com — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:54:58 GMT

Friday, May 17, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:
In spite of solid corporate earnings reports and benign inflation figures, stocks started and ended on a muted note as weaker than expected manufacturing data and higher than forecast jobless claims pressured stocks down. Technology shares were the only sector of the S&P that ended in the plus column as strong earnings by Cisco Systems pushed the sector into positive territory. Commodity prices were mixed, while Treasuries rallied slightly.

Looking Ahead:

In early morning trading US equity futures are pointing to a slightly higher open, while European and Asian bourses are trading near the flat line. Investors appear to be closely focusing on recent commentary by Fed officials, suggesting that the Central Bank may reduce the current asset purchase levels, which stand at $80 billion per month. To put this sum in perspective, when the US government bailed out AIG in 2008, it cost (including extending lines of credit) just over $145 billion – in other words; we are spending more than the AIG bailout every other month. I’d say a slow-down, if prudent and timely, is more than acceptable. As the New York Stock Exchange opening bell rings, investors will wait for the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index as well as the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators data. Later in the day, several regional Fed Governors are set to speak, potentially adding to market anxiety. Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM and beginning June 2^nd at 2:00 PM every Sunday afternoon on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest commentary and analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Necessary Fuel for the Upward March

Thebetafund.com — Wed, 15 May 2013 20:42:23 GMT

Wednesday, May 15, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks started the day on the downside as investors looked to take a breather from multiple back-to-back days of new highs for most major indexes. But, after a positive housing and construction report was released in the mid-morning, stocks resumed their upward rally. Most sectors of the S&P were higher with healthcare and material shares underperforming. The 10-year Treasury yield continued to creep towards 2%. As we have been discussing for several weeks now, although a short-term market pullback is something investors should always be ready to contend with, a prolonged or deep correction appears unlikely at this time.

Looking Ahead:

US equities continue to rally as corporate earnings are providing the necessary fuel for the upward march, while loose monetary policy is providing the support to avoid a meaningful selloff. Given the overall global growth picture and subdued inflation expectations, it is not unforeseeable that further easing may come from Europe, Japan and several emerging economies in the North Africa Middle-East region and South-East Asia. All in all, as corporate earnings season comes to an end, we expect a short period of low volatility before a likely pickup in velocity of trading after Labor Day. Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 to hear our latest analysis and commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details, and listen to us on WOR (710 AM) beginning Sunday June 2^nd or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live.

Earnings Keep On Rolling

Thebetafund.com — Mon, 13 May 2013 12:53:48 GMT

Monday, May 13, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Equities reached all-time highs last week as positive economic news, further Central Bank easing by Australia and continued positive earnings all aided investor sentiment. So far, 86% of companies within the S&P500 have reported quarterly earnings. Of these, 67% have surpassed EPS estimates, while 48% beat revenue forecasts. On a sector basis, Utilities have shown the most consistent revenue beats, while Consumer Discretionary and Energy companies have shown the most frequent EPS surprises. The average company within the S&P has grown year-over-year revenues by 4.7% and grown earnings by 9.5%.

Looking Ahead:

While the debate over an eventual market correction continues, we are focusing our attention on sustainable growth and attractive valuations. As "crisis fatigue" continues to set in with investors, we expect high-quality small cap stocks to begin taking market leadership. Although we continue to see significant opportunities in high-quality large-cap dividend paying stocks, we anticipate a leadership rotation in the second half of the year. One of the reasons large-cap multinational companies have fared so well in recent years (and should continue to do so) is because of their perceived safety. As a result, valuations have become more reflective the companies intrinsic value and future return expectations should be reduced to high single-digit annual gains. Conversely, high quality small capitalization stocks have underperformed in recent years, and remain attractively valued.

This week’s market moving events:

Earnings keep on rolling in, as Q1 reporting seasons comes to an end. On the economic front, there is little to fret over this week, other than the usual weekly data releases. As investors have become more accustomed to inconsistent data points and news, as well as showing signs of apathy towards geopolitical driven events, expect volatility to remain subdued in the short-term.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM to hear our latest analysis and commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/mmfnradio to listen live. Beginning Sunday June 2nd, we will be airing Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on WOR 910 AM from 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM. We look forward to you tuning in.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Jobless Claims Numbers

Thebetafund.com — Thu, 09 May 2013 12:51:45 GMT

Thursday, May 9, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new record highs after advancing slightly during Wednesday’s trading session. Although trading volume was lackluster, market breadth was broad enough to lift most sectors of the S&P 500 with utilities being the sole underperformer. Oil and other key commodities rose across the board on better than expected German manufacturing data, while U.S. Treasury Yields rose.

Looking Ahead:

This morning’s Jobless Claims numbers are the only meaningful economic data to be released this week, and could therefore have a greater influence on market sentiment than normal. However, as has been demonstrated in the past few weeks, market fundamentals and stock valuations appear to be reasonable enough for most investors to continue to buy stocks on the belief that the extraordinary monetary policies and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) will support and help stocks rise in the current economic cycle and earnings environment. Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM to hear our latest analysis and market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Futures Indicate Moderate Lower Opening

Thebetafund.com — Wed, 08 May 2013 13:00:41 GMT

Wednesday, May 8, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Stocks closed at new all-time highs on Tuesday, as strong corporate earnings drove share prices higher. The energy and materials sectors benefited the most, while technology shares underperformed. In a surprise move, the Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points and the head of the ECB indicated that further easing in Europe could be possible. Commodities and the US dollar were mixed.

Looking Ahead:

Futures are indicating a moderately lower opening so far, as investors seem ready to take a pause. Overnight, a report showed German Industrial Production growing at a more rapid pace than predicted and overall business sentiment being stronger than forecast. With stocks trading at what most view to be extended levels, we are still finding opportunities and value in various segments of the market. Given the current economic environment we believe our Dividend Buster Program, which focuses on high-quality companies, with strong balance sheets, positive cash-flow, and a sizeable dividend should continue to perform well. We also believe that small-cap stocks, in particular lower-volatility small-cap stocks, will perform well in the current environment (read our WSJ Marketwatch article on the topic here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-case-for-small-cap-stocks-2013-05-08?link=MW_TD ). Our Small-Cap Buster program identifies high-quality small companies, all of which are profitable, growing revenues and earnings and many of which pay a dividend higher than the 10 Year Treasury. We invite you to contact us to learn more about investing in lower-volatility small-cap stocks by calling us at 800 433 0323.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM to hear more of our analysis and market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on the following link http://bit.ly/MMFNRadio to listen live.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.

Consumer Confidence Data / Earnings Report

Thebetafund.com — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:54:03 GMT

Tuesday, May 7, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Enjoy the Silence was the theme on Wall Street to start the week. On the three year anniversary of the “flash-crash” where the Dow Jones traded in a 1000 point range, stocks moved less than 50 points from peak to trough. The absence of economic news and palatable earnings reports kept stocks, commodities and Treasuries in a tight range, with most of the sectors of the S&P ending slightly higher.

Looking Ahead:

Consumer Confidence data and a few earnings reports in the consumer sector will greet investors in the early trading hours on Tuesday morning. However, the overall absence of news around the world is likely to make for another muted day. International bourses are all higher as of 5:30 New York time, and U.S. market futures are indicating a higher open. The Central Bank of Australia lowered interest rates by ¼% overnight and ECB head Mario Draghi stated that further monetary steps to support the continents economies are possible. Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg weekdays at 10:05 AM to hear our latest analysis and market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details, or click on this link http://bit.ly/mmfnradio to listen live.

Download our Mobile App today.

by thebetafund.com
Montebello Partners LLC

Opinions express herein are those of Oliver Pursche, and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Gary Goldberg Financial Services or Montebello Partners, LLC. These opinions are not investment advice, recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any price or quotation contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or appropriateness of the information or methodology contained in this material. Opinions expressed are not investment recommendation or advice and should only be considered as a single factor in any investment decision. Investors should consult with their own investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Gary Goldberg Financial Services, Montebello Partners, and/or their affiliates may have an interest long or short and may be actively trading the securities mentioned in this report and may in fact be executing a strategy contrary to the opinion shared within this report. Gary Goldberg Financial Service, Montebello Partners, LLC, its directors, officers and employees, including Oliver Pursche, do not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.