Nov 28

Official Kickoff Of The Holiday Shopping Season

Market Recap:

Stocks climbed slightly on Wednesday in a muted session ahead of Thanksgiving and the official kickoff of the holiday shopping season. As we discussed on CNBC on Wednesday afternoon (watch the interview here) we generally expect major indexes to continue to rise through the end of the year, but see some risks in stocks that have risen sharply in the past few weeks. This is particularly true of some technology names as well as the consumer discretionary sector. Although he latter may continue with its recent strong performance based on our expectations of a strong start to the holiday shopping season. Oil set a four year low on Wednesday and is set to drop further after OPEC announced it would not cut production. As a result of the Thursday announcement, Oil futures dropped nearly 6% ahead of Friday’s trading session.

Looking Ahead:

Friday trading could prove erratic as there is little news being released to guide market participants, and many traders and investors are enjoying an extended Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Monday’s market action will be largely influenced by shopping results, which are expected to climb a meager 2 ½% over last year’s figures.

Next Week’s Market Moving Events:

  • Monday: European manufacturing data, U.S. consumer spending figures, PMI Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing data.
  • Tuesday: Motor Vehicle sales, Goldman Store Sales, Construction Spending, Japanese and Chines PMI data.
  • Wednesday: Eurozone GDP and Inflation data, U.S. Job Creation report, ADP Employment report, Mortgage Applications, Petroleum Supply data.
  • Thursday: U.S. Chain Store sales, Payroll report, Consumer Comfort Index
  • Friday: November employment data, Consumer Credit and Factory Orders are released.

Don’t miss a very special “Best Of” Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 26

Little For Investors To Grab Onto

Market Recap:

Stocks started on relatively strong footing on Tuesday, after the second reading of Third Quarter GDP showed the US economy growing by 3.9% – better than expected. But, a slower than forecast rise in home prices and weaker energy prices ended up dragging stocks into lower territory by the end of trading. Excluding the energy sector, which dropped 1.6%, stocks were mostly unchanged, with Consumer Discretionary shares rising 0.23% on overall optimism. Oil fell to a four-year low as market participants began to doubt that Saudi Arabia and OPEC would announce a cut in oil production in their upcoming meeting set for this Thursday.

Looking Ahead:

There is little for investors to grab onto on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and with so many traders and investors already heading for a long weekend, expect light volume today. This morning’s release of Durable Goods orders could impact market direction if the figure is materially away from consensus estimates – economists expect a decline of 0.5% in the month of October. Home sales and consumer sentiment data will also be released.

Make sure to tune into CNBC this afternoon at 3:45 PM when Oliver Pursche joins Kelly Evans and Bill Griffith on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to give our latest analysis and outlook. And don’t miss a very special “Best Of” Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 24

Stocks started the week on the positive side

Market Recap:

Stocks started the week on the positive side, as investors followed through on last week’s rally. Better than forecast German business sentiment set the stage, before PMI Services data slightly disappointed causing markets to reverse early gains. Technology stocks outperformed as the NASDAQ gained nearly 1%, consumer discretionary shares also rose, while Energy, Telecom and Utility shares fell. Commodities were mostly lower, as were Treasury yields and the US Dollar index.

Looking Ahead:

Tuesday morning’s second look at third quarter GDP and an update on Home prices are likely to prove pivotal as many traders and investors consider the Tuesday before Thanksgiving the last trading day of the week. With winter weather approaching the east coast and the potential of as much as 8 inches of snow expected between Wednesday and Thursday morning, earlier than previously planned departures are likely. This means that Tuesday trading could be volatile, and exaggerated as market participants may look to reduce positions ahead of the holiday. One key event many investors will be watching on Thanksgiving Day will be the OPEC meeting to see whether or not Oil production might be cut by Saudi Arabia in response to the sharp drop in Oil prices.


Oliver Pursche, will be on Fox Business Tuesday evening from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM to discuss our latest outlook for the economy and markets, and will join Kelly Evans and Bill Griffith on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday afternoon at 3:45 PM for his regular market update.

Visit www.ggfs.com for details. And don’t miss  Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM radio for a special “best of Money Matters” program.

Nov 21

Next Week’s Market Moving Events

Market Recap:

Better than expected economic news in form of strong home sales and benign inflation figures helped lift stocks to new highs. Energy and technology shares led markets higher as Intel (INTC) rose 4% and commodity prices stabilized. Six of the ten sectors of the S&P were lower, as performance divergence continued to rise.


Looking Ahead:

There is little in terms of economic news being released on Friday, although the Kansas City Manufacturing Index figures could impact market direction. As we head into Thanksgiving week, expect lighter volume trading, which often coincides with increased volatility. Make sure to tune into Fox Business on Tuesday evening at 6:00 PM when our President, Oliver Pursche, joins Charles Payne for the full hour to discuss our year end outlook as well as how we’re position portfolios for 2015. And don’t miss Oliver on Wednesday afternoon at 3:45 PM on CNBC when he joins Kelly Evans and Bill Griffith from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Money Matters with Gary Goldberg will air on Sunday at 11:00 AM only this weekend on WOR 710 AM Radio, so tune in to hear a detailed discussion of year-end planning and portfolio changes you should consider. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.


Next Week’s Market Moving Events:

  • Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, PMI Services Flash PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes
  • Tuesday: German GDP is reported overnight, followed by a second look at third quarter GDP in the US at 8:30 AM. Corporate profit, US Redbook, House Prices and Consumer Confidence are also released.
  • Wednesday: Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Income and Spending figures as well as Petroleum (Oil) Reserves data
  • Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving – the ECB begins its two day meeting, Japanese CPI and Employment data
  • Friday: Chicago PMI at 9:45, Markets close at 1:00 PM EST
  • Sunday: Chinese Manufacturing data, Japanese PMI Manufacturing

Nov 20

Overall environment is positive for stocks

Market Recap:

Stocks started with a slight down-drift on Wednesday as investors waited for the release of the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes, which revealed a mild concern over the impact of falling inflationary pressures. The newly raised concerns reignited speculation that the Fed may not raise rates until late 2015 or perhaps not until 2016. Bond yields did climb slightly, as the U.S. dollar rose and stocks ended near flat for the day. 7 of the 10 S&P sectors were lower, as Telecom shares fell the most with a 1.06% decline, followed by Healthcare and Technology shares declining about ½% each. Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staple, and energy shares all climbed about ½%.


Looking Ahead:

European and U.S. inflation data will be released before the opening bell rings at the New York Stock Exchange, while key housing data and leading indicators will be released at 10 AM on Thursday. Generally speaking we advise clients to remain patient as we believe the overall environment is positive for stocks. However, given our expectation of rising volatility, mostly as a reaction to geopolitical events, we also recommend a more defensive posture. The beaten up energy sector is presenting some good long-term value for investors, and high-quality dividend paying stocks continue to be attractive for investors seeking market exposure along with a steady stream of dividend income and lower overall volatility than the broader market. Our President, Oliver Pursche, will be on Fox Business next Tuesday for the six o’clock hour, as well as on CNBC for the closing bell next Wednesday afternoon at 3:45 PM to discuss our year-end outlook and how to best position your portfolio for 2015.

Don’t miss this week’s Money Matters with Gary Goldberg on Saturday afternoon at 2:00 PM and Sunday morning at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio for our complete economic analysis and market commentary along with interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 18

Slight Negative Territory

Market Recap:

Stocks started the week in slight negative territory on news that Japan’s GDP fell in the third quarter, putting the world’s third largest economy into recession. By the end of the day stocks recouped losses and ended slightly higher. However, 6 of the 10 sectors of the S&P were lower for the day, with energy shares falling nearly ½% while the traditionally defensive Utilities sector gained 1.34%. As we wrote in our weekly article on Marketwatch this morning (Read the article here), inflation data will be closely monitored this week, as the FOMC minutes and a number of key economic data points are released.

Looking Ahead:

German Business Confidence Index, U.S. Producer Prices and Housing Data will all be released tomorrow morning and will likely drive trading on Tuesday, as investors focus their attention on Central Bank policy and falling Oil prices unnerve market participants. Lower oil and energy prices are likely to prove beneficial to the U.S. economy over the coming months, as consumer confidence remains high and we enter the holiday shopping season. However, lower oil prices also pose a risk to the global economy, as it does add to already evident deflationary pressures. This could become particularly problematic as these pressures are potentially devastating to several economies, including Iran, Egypt and Russia, all of which are already geopolitically unstable and prone to aggression. As such, we believe that the OPEC nations will likely begin price-supporting actions (i.e. limit new supply) at the upcoming OPEC meeting next week.

Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this coming Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM to hear our complete economic analysis and ongoing market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 17

This Week’s Market Moving events

Market Recap:

Stocks continued to make advances last week, albeit minimal ones. Investors generally took a break and appear to be digesting the varying economic indicators. Concerns over European and overall global growth are putting some pressure on stocks, while strength in the U.S. economy is providing optimism. Overall, earnings season has proven quite constructive, as earnings for the S&P 500 were shown to grow nearly 10% year-over-year.

 

Looking Ahead:

Stocks seem set to sell off on Monday morning as investors were shocked overnight to learn that Japan’s economy fell into recession in the past quarter. Now that third quarter earnings season has come to an end, investors should expect some added volatility heading into Thanksgiving week, as market participants look ahead to the holiday shopping season.  Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM to hear our complete economic analysis and market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

 

This Week’s Market Moving events:

  • Monday: (Sunday night – Japanese GDP), U.S. Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production
  • Tuesday: German Business Confidence, U.S. PPI, Housing Market data
  • Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes, Japanese Industrial Production, Chinese PMI Manufacturing
  • Thursday: Consumer Prices, Jobless Claims, PMI Manufacturing, Philly Fed Survey, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators
  • Friday: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

Nov 12

We expect new highs over the coming months

Market Recap:

Time will tell if Tuesday’s market action was the calm before the storm or just a nice quiet uneventful day – markets moved very little as the absence of economic data releases and closed bond markets in honor of Veterans Day did little to motivate investors in either direction. Sectors of the S&P were mixed and mostly near the flat line.


Looking Ahead:

As we discussed on CNBC on Tuesday afternoon (watch the video here: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000329420 ) we view the current environment as generally constructive for stocks and do expect new highs over the coming months. European economic data could prove to be the next catalyst to help drive markets higher. And while we like U.S. stocks in general, we do view high-quality dividend paying stocks as best suited for most investors looking to participate in the market upside but hedge their bets slightly through the benefits of dividends.

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Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic updates and ongoing market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 11

Happy Veterans Day / Investor sentiment vacillated

Market Recap:

With little economic news to grab onto, investor sentiment vacillated and gave stocks little direction for most of the day. Commodities continued to fall as demand concerns permeated, while sectors of the S&P were mostly higher as energy shares were the sole losers of the day. The big news of the day was an announcement by President Obama, who is on an official visit to China, that “Net-Neutrality” was critical and that the Federal Communication Commission should push for stronger regulations to ensure that internet providers – mainly cable and telephone companies, which fell on the news – could not select which websites, i.e. Netflix, Yahoo, CNN.com, etc… could load faster or slower.


Looking Ahead:

Happy Veterans Day and thank you to all who have served and continue to serve our country so valiantly.  Bond markets and banks are closed on Tuesday, and there will be no material U.S. economic news being released. Today is “Singles” Day in China, the biggest online shopping day of the year for the country (similar to our Cyber Monday), so investors will look for early sales figures later this afternoon and evening. Make sure to tune into CNBC today at 3:45 PM when our Co-Portfolio Manager of Montebello Partners LLC & President of GGFS, Oliver Pursche, joins Kelly Evans and Bill Griffith on the floor of the NYSE to talk about the catalysts we see driving stocks higher by year end.

And don’t miss Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our complete economic analysis and ongoing market commentary. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

Nov 07

Stocks to New all-time Highs

Market Recap:

Better than expected economic news, a lack of surprises out of Europe and the ECB along with reasonably strong earnings data helped lift stocks to new all-time highs on Thursday. Sectors of the S&P were mostly higher, with telecom and utility shares falling while the energy sector rebounded sharply, rising 1.28%. Commodities were mostly higher, as was the dollar, while Treasury prices fell slightly.


Looking Ahead:

Friday morning’s release of October unemployment figures will likely be the key driver to market direction, as early morning futures point to a mildly higher yet muted open. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is set to speak at a policy panel with several other leading central bankers from around the world. While we do not expect any surprises from the address, investor’s attempts to decipher “banker speak” could lead to some added mid-day volatility.


Next Week’s Market Moving Events:

  • Monday: No major releases
  • Tuesday: Bond markets closed in honor of Veterans Day. No major releases
  • Wednesday: Eurozone Industrial Production, U.S. Small Business Optimism, Redbook report, Atlanta Fed Inflation Expectation, Wholesale Trade and Chinese Industrial Production after the closing bell.
  • Thursday: Eurozone CPI, U.S. Jobless Claims, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Statistics) report, Consumer Confidence.
  • Friday: Eurozone GDP, U.S. Retail Sales data, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories

Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 2:00 PM and Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic analysis, a great interview with S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall, as well as our ongoing market commentary. And don’t miss our President, Oliver Pursche, on CNBC this coming Tuesday at 3:45 PM. Visit www.ggfs.com for details.

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